The objective in this study was to assess future water availability in the upper part of the Baro basin in Southwest Ethiopia through the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. HBV-96 rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated for historical records of streamflow. The estimated NSE and RVE values are 0.91 and -6.76% during calibration period (1996-2002) and validation period (2003-2005) values are 0.72 and 9.78% respectively. Dynamically downscaled climate model outputs were obtained from four models through the CORDEX-Africa program. The four climate models were evaluated using a suite of statistical measures such as bias, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Variation (CV). The bias of the simulated rainfall varies between -4.20% and -25.39% suggesting underestimation. In terms of bias, EC-Earth performs best while HadGEM2-ES performs worst. In terms of RMSE, MPI-ESM-LR performs worst while CM5A-MR performs best. All the four GCMs projections showed that the maximum temperature will likely increase by 2.08°C (MPI-ESM-LR) to 2.52°C (CM5A-MR) and minimum temperature will also likely increase by 1.65°C (EC-Earth) to 2.78°C (HadGM2-ES) in the Baro basin in medium-term (2041-2070) for the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the annual rainfall amount will likely decrease by 7.34% (CM5A-MR) to 17.42% (HaDGEM2-ES) and with a likely increase in annual potential evapotranspiration. The maximum streamflow reduction was projected for the rainy season (Kiremt) by up to 28.36% (CM5A-MR). The annual streamflow is projected to decline by up to 35.2% during 2050s. The findings of this study indicate that climate change under the RCP4.5 scenario will have a significant implication to water availability in the Baro basin.
| Published in | Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science (Volume 10, Issue 2) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12 |
| Page(s) | 16-28 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Climate Change Impact, RCP, Streamflow, HBV-96 Model, Baro Basin
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APA Style
Tolossa Negassa Ebissa. (2021). Future Water Availability Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario in Baro Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science, 10(2), 16-28. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12
ACS Style
Tolossa Negassa Ebissa. Future Water Availability Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario in Baro Basin, Ethiopia. J. Water Resour. Ocean Sci. 2021, 10(2), 16-28. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12
AMA Style
Tolossa Negassa Ebissa. Future Water Availability Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario in Baro Basin, Ethiopia. J Water Resour Ocean Sci. 2021;10(2):16-28. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12,
author = {Tolossa Negassa Ebissa},
title = {Future Water Availability Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario in Baro Basin, Ethiopia},
journal = {Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
pages = {16-28},
doi = {10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wros.20211002.12},
abstract = {The objective in this study was to assess future water availability in the upper part of the Baro basin in Southwest Ethiopia through the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. HBV-96 rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated for historical records of streamflow. The estimated NSE and RVE values are 0.91 and -6.76% during calibration period (1996-2002) and validation period (2003-2005) values are 0.72 and 9.78% respectively. Dynamically downscaled climate model outputs were obtained from four models through the CORDEX-Africa program. The four climate models were evaluated using a suite of statistical measures such as bias, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Variation (CV). The bias of the simulated rainfall varies between -4.20% and -25.39% suggesting underestimation. In terms of bias, EC-Earth performs best while HadGEM2-ES performs worst. In terms of RMSE, MPI-ESM-LR performs worst while CM5A-MR performs best. All the four GCMs projections showed that the maximum temperature will likely increase by 2.08°C (MPI-ESM-LR) to 2.52°C (CM5A-MR) and minimum temperature will also likely increase by 1.65°C (EC-Earth) to 2.78°C (HadGM2-ES) in the Baro basin in medium-term (2041-2070) for the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the annual rainfall amount will likely decrease by 7.34% (CM5A-MR) to 17.42% (HaDGEM2-ES) and with a likely increase in annual potential evapotranspiration. The maximum streamflow reduction was projected for the rainy season (Kiremt) by up to 28.36% (CM5A-MR). The annual streamflow is projected to decline by up to 35.2% during 2050s. The findings of this study indicate that climate change under the RCP4.5 scenario will have a significant implication to water availability in the Baro basin.},
year = {2021}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Future Water Availability Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario in Baro Basin, Ethiopia AU - Tolossa Negassa Ebissa Y1 - 2021/04/26 PY - 2021 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12 DO - 10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12 T2 - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science JF - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science JO - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science SP - 16 EP - 28 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2328-7993 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20211002.12 AB - The objective in this study was to assess future water availability in the upper part of the Baro basin in Southwest Ethiopia through the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. HBV-96 rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated for historical records of streamflow. The estimated NSE and RVE values are 0.91 and -6.76% during calibration period (1996-2002) and validation period (2003-2005) values are 0.72 and 9.78% respectively. Dynamically downscaled climate model outputs were obtained from four models through the CORDEX-Africa program. The four climate models were evaluated using a suite of statistical measures such as bias, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Variation (CV). The bias of the simulated rainfall varies between -4.20% and -25.39% suggesting underestimation. In terms of bias, EC-Earth performs best while HadGEM2-ES performs worst. In terms of RMSE, MPI-ESM-LR performs worst while CM5A-MR performs best. All the four GCMs projections showed that the maximum temperature will likely increase by 2.08°C (MPI-ESM-LR) to 2.52°C (CM5A-MR) and minimum temperature will also likely increase by 1.65°C (EC-Earth) to 2.78°C (HadGM2-ES) in the Baro basin in medium-term (2041-2070) for the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the annual rainfall amount will likely decrease by 7.34% (CM5A-MR) to 17.42% (HaDGEM2-ES) and with a likely increase in annual potential evapotranspiration. The maximum streamflow reduction was projected for the rainy season (Kiremt) by up to 28.36% (CM5A-MR). The annual streamflow is projected to decline by up to 35.2% during 2050s. The findings of this study indicate that climate change under the RCP4.5 scenario will have a significant implication to water availability in the Baro basin. VL - 10 IS - 2 ER -
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