Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19

Xiaoxuan Yang

doi:doi:10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

| Peer-Reviewed

Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19

Xiaoxuan Yang

Published in World Journal of Public Health (Volume 6, Issue 2)

Received: 10 March 2021 Accepted: 26 March 2021 Published: 7 April 2021

Views: Downloads:

Download PDF

Share This Article

Twitter
Linked In
Facebook

Abstract

Before the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were authorized, governments around the world have adopted strict lockdown measures in response to the threat from the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large, the question of when and how to safely reopen an economy is urgent. Based on the data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from all 31 provincial capitals on the Chinese mainland, this paper is the first to apply the synthetic control method to empirically analyze the causal effect of reopening the economy in three provincial capitals on their increase in new cases. Data showed that the number of new infection cases in all three cities remained at zero for several consecutive days before reopening. Reopening the economy did not have a significant adverse effect on the increase in the number of new infections in these three cities for at least a week after reopening. This study contains lessons for other countries of the world by providing timely and reliable causal evidence on the timing and support safeguards for reopening an economy during COVID-19.

Published in	World Journal of Public Health (Volume 6, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
Page(s)	31-39
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

COVID-19, Reopening Economies, Increase of Newly Confirmed Cases, Synthetic Control Method

References

[1]	Chen, S., Yang, J., Yang, W., Wang, C., & Bärnighausen, T. (2020). COVID-19 control in China during mass population movements at New Year. The Lancet, 395 (10226), 764-766.
[2]	Qiu, Y., Chen, X., & Shi, W. (2020). Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Journal of Population Economics, 1.
[3]	Chan, J. F. W., Yuan, S., Kok, K. H., To, K. K. W., Chu, H., Yang, J.,... & Tsoi, H. W. (2020). A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet, 395 (10223), 514-523.
[4]	Bajardi, P., Poletto, C., Ramasco, J. J., Tizzoni, M., Colizza, V., & Vespignani, A. (2011). Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic. PloS one, 6 (1), e16591.
[5]	Wang, Q., & Taylor, J. E. (2016). Patterns and limitations of urban human mobility resilience under the influence of multiple types of natural disaster. PLoS one, 11 (1), e0147299.
[6]	Charu, V., Zeger, S., Gog, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Kissler, S., Simonsen, L.,... & Viboud, C. (2017). Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. PLoS computational biology, 13 (2), e1005382.
[7]	Fang, H., Wang, L., & Yang, Y. (2020). Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) in china. Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104272.
[8]	Guo, J. (2020). The Impact of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders: Estimating the Heterogeneous Effects Using GPS Data from Mobile Devices.
[9]	Fowler, J. H., Hill, S. J., Obradovich, N., & Levin, R. (2020). The Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities in the United States. medRxiv.
[10]	Friedson, A. I., McNichols, D., Sabia, J. J., & Dave, D. (2020). Did california’s shelter-in-place order work? early coronavirus-related public health effects (No. w26992). National Bureau of Economic Research.
[11]	Lyu, W., & Wehby, G. L. (2020). Comparison of Estimated Rates of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID- 19) in Border Counties in Iowa Without a Stay-at-Home Order and Border Counties in Illinois With a Stay-at-Home Order. JAMA Network Open, 3 (5), e2011102-e2011102.
[12]	Taipale, J., Romer, P., & Linnarsson, S. (2020). Population-scale testing can suppress the spread of COVID-19. medRxiv.
[13]	Zhou, Q. (2020). The effect of reopening policy on COVID-19 related cases and deaths. medRxiv.
[14]	Stock, J. H. (2020). Reopening the Coronavirus-Closed Economy (Vol. 60). Tech. rep., Hutchins Center Working Paper.
[15]	Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2020). A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown (No. w26981). National Bureau of Economic Research.
[16]	Rampini, A. A. (2020). Sequential lifting of covid-19 interventions with population heterogeneity (No. w27063). National Bureau of Economic Research.
[17]	Tian, H., Liu, Y., Li, Y., Wu, C. H., Chen, B., Kraemer, M. U.,... & Wang, B. (2020). An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science, 368 (6491), 638-642.
[18]	Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, 93 (1), 113-132.
[19]	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American statistical Association, 105 (490), 493-505.
[20]	Abadie, A. (2019). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature.
[21]	Cole, M. A., Elliott, R. J., & Liu, B. (2020). The Impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution and Health: A Machine Learning and Augmented Synthetic Control Approach. Discussion Papers.
[22]	Athey, S., & Imbens, G. W. (2017). The state of applied econometrics: Causality and policy evaluation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31 (2), 3-32.
[23]	Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates?. The Quarterly journal of economics, 119 (1), 249-275.
[24]	Kraemer, M. U., Yang, C. H., Gutierrez, B., Wu, C. H., Klein, B., Pigott, D. M.,... & Brownstein, J. S. (2020). The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science, 368 (6490), 493-497.

Cite This Article

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Xiaoxuan Yang. (2021). Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19. World Journal of Public Health, 6(2), 31-39. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Xiaoxuan Yang. Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19. World J. Public Health 2021, 6(2), 31-39. doi: 10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Xiaoxuan Yang. Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19. World J Public Health. 2021;6(2):31-39. doi: 10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12,
  author = {Xiaoxuan Yang},
  title = {Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19},
  journal = {World Journal of Public Health},
  volume = {6},
  number = {2},
  pages = {31-39},
  doi = {10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wjph.20210602.12},
  abstract = {Before the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were authorized, governments around the world have adopted strict lockdown measures in response to the threat from the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large, the question of when and how to safely reopen an economy is urgent. Based on the data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from all 31 provincial capitals on the Chinese mainland, this paper is the first to apply the synthetic control method to empirically analyze the causal effect of reopening the economy in three provincial capitals on their increase in new cases. Data showed that the number of new infection cases in all three cities remained at zero for several consecutive days before reopening. Reopening the economy did not have a significant adverse effect on the increase in the number of new infections in these three cities for at least a week after reopening. This study contains lessons for other countries of the world by providing timely and reliable causal evidence on the timing and support safeguards for reopening an economy during COVID-19.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19
AU  - Xiaoxuan Yang
Y1  - 2021/04/07
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
T2  - World Journal of Public Health
JF  - World Journal of Public Health
JO  - World Journal of Public Health
SP  - 31
EP  - 39
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2637-6059
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
AB  - Before the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were authorized, governments around the world have adopted strict lockdown measures in response to the threat from the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large, the question of when and how to safely reopen an economy is urgent. Based on the data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from all 31 provincial capitals on the Chinese mainland, this paper is the first to apply the synthetic control method to empirically analyze the causal effect of reopening the economy in three provincial capitals on their increase in new cases. Data showed that the number of new infection cases in all three cities remained at zero for several consecutive days before reopening. Reopening the economy did not have a significant adverse effect on the increase in the number of new infections in these three cities for at least a week after reopening. This study contains lessons for other countries of the world by providing timely and reliable causal evidence on the timing and support safeguards for reopening an economy during COVID-19.
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download

Author Information

Xiaoxuan Yang

Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America

Download PDF

Sections

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Xiaoxuan Yang. (2021). Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19. World Journal of Public Health, 6(2), 31-39. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Xiaoxuan Yang. Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19. World J. Public Health 2021, 6(2), 31-39. doi: 10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Xiaoxuan Yang. Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19. World J Public Health. 2021;6(2):31-39. doi: 10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12,
  author = {Xiaoxuan Yang},
  title = {Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19},
  journal = {World Journal of Public Health},
  volume = {6},
  number = {2},
  pages = {31-39},
  doi = {10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wjph.20210602.12},
  abstract = {Before the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were authorized, governments around the world have adopted strict lockdown measures in response to the threat from the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large, the question of when and how to safely reopen an economy is urgent. Based on the data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from all 31 provincial capitals on the Chinese mainland, this paper is the first to apply the synthetic control method to empirically analyze the causal effect of reopening the economy in three provincial capitals on their increase in new cases. Data showed that the number of new infection cases in all three cities remained at zero for several consecutive days before reopening. Reopening the economy did not have a significant adverse effect on the increase in the number of new infections in these three cities for at least a week after reopening. This study contains lessons for other countries of the world by providing timely and reliable causal evidence on the timing and support safeguards for reopening an economy during COVID-19.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Timing and Support Safeguards for Reopening an Economy During COVID-19
AU  - Xiaoxuan Yang
Y1  - 2021/04/07
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
T2  - World Journal of Public Health
JF  - World Journal of Public Health
JO  - World Journal of Public Health
SP  - 31
EP  - 39
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2637-6059
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20210602.12
AB  - Before the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were authorized, governments around the world have adopted strict lockdown measures in response to the threat from the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large, the question of when and how to safely reopen an economy is urgent. Based on the data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from all 31 provincial capitals on the Chinese mainland, this paper is the first to apply the synthetic control method to empirically analyze the causal effect of reopening the economy in three provincial capitals on their increase in new cases. Data showed that the number of new infection cases in all three cities remained at zero for several consecutive days before reopening. Reopening the economy did not have a significant adverse effect on the increase in the number of new infections in these three cities for at least a week after reopening. This study contains lessons for other countries of the world by providing timely and reliable causal evidence on the timing and support safeguards for reopening an economy during COVID-19.
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download