How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization

Shuang Yu; Xiaojun Zhao

doi:doi:10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

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How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization

Shuang Yu, Xiaojun Zhao

Published in Psychology and Behavioral Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 4)

Received: 14 July 2021 Accepted: 23 July 2021 Published: 31 August 2021

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Abstract

The population aging has been considered as a major trend in China. By 2019, people aged 60 or older has exceeded 2.49 m, accounting for 17.9% of the population, while people aged 65 or older has reaches 1.76 m, accounting for 12.6% of the population. However, there were no clear empirical evidences that show how political polarization is affected by the older population. We use a four-round household data from 2012-2018 CFPS of China to construct a large panel data including 14,352 adults each year. This paper computes the polarization index of eight typical public events and combines them to construct an overall index, using Gini coefficient, Theil index, and Atkinson index. We find that the index is larger for the oldest than for the youngest group in overall and eight measures, indicating that political polarization has gradually bifurcated with age. To explain this phenomenon, we focus on the demographic differences in information channel, parental influence, occupation distribution and regional migration between young and old people as evidence of higher polarization. Then, a Tobit model estimated at the age-province level implies that increase in average age is associated with significant grows in polarization index and four channel effects also hold. These findings provide a new perspective to explain the reason for increasing political polarization.

Published in	Psychology and Behavioral Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
Page(s)	145-159
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Public Events, Political Polarization, Population Aging, China

References

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[2]	Choi, K., & Shin, S. (2015). Population aging, economic growth, and the social transmission of human capital: An analysis with an overlapping generations model. Economic Modelling, 50, 138-147.
[3]	Christensen, K., Prof, Doblhammer, G., Prof, Rau, R., PhD, & Vaupel, J. W., Prof. (2009). Ageing populations: The challenges ahead. The Lancet (British Edition), 374 (9696), 1196-1208.
[4]	Dall, T. M., Gallo, P. D., Chakrabarti, R., West, T., Semilla, A. P., & Storm, M. V. (2013). An aging population and growing disease burden will require a large and specialized health care workforce by 2025. Health Affairs (Project Hope), 32 (11), 2013-2020.
[5]	Gurwitz, J. H., & Pearson, S. D. (2019). Novel therapies for an aging population: Grappling with price, value, and affordability. JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association, 321 (16), 1567-1568.
[6]	Jivraj S, Nazroo J, Barnes M. Change in social detachment in older age in England. In: Banks J, Nazroo J, Steptoe A, eds. The Dynamics of Ageing: Evidence From the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002–10 (Wave 5). London, UK: Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2012.
[7]	Kendig, H., Browning, C. J., Thomas, S. A., & Wells, Y. (2014). Health, lifestyle, and gender influences on aging well: An australian longitudinal analysis to guide health promotion. Frontiers in Public Health, 2, 70-70.
[8]	Kingston, A., Robinson, L., Booth, H., Knapp, M., Jagger, C., MODEM Project, MODEM project, & for the MODEM project. (2018). Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in england to 2035: Estimates from the population ageing and care simulation (PACSim) model. Age and Ageing, 47 (3), 374-380.
[9]	Li, G., Li, Z., & Lv, X. (2021). The ageing population, dependency burdens and household commercial insurance purchase: Evidence from china. Applied Economics Letters, 28 (4), 294-298.
[10]	Liang, Y., Niu, X., & Lu, P. (2020). The aging population in china: Subjective well-being of empty nesters in rural eastern china. Journal of Health PsyFigure 1. Trends in Polarization of Public Events
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[12]	Sander, M., Oxlund, B., Jespersen, A., Krasnik, A., Mortensen, E. L., Westendorp, R. G. J., & Rasmussen, L. J. (2015). The challenges of human population ageing. Age and Ageing, 44 (2), 185-187.
[13]	Shen, Y., Han, W., Yu, X., Liu, Z., Jiang, J., & Zhang, S. (2018). Predicting blood supply and demand in the next 20 years with population ageing in china: A cross-sectional study. The Lancet (British Edition), 392, S62.
[14]	Spijker, J., & MacInnes, J. (2013). Population ageing: The timebomb that isn’t? British Medical Journal, 347 (7933), 20-22.
[15]	Zhong, H. (2011). The impact of population aging on income inequality in developing countries: Evidence from rural china. China Economic Review, 22 (1), 98-107.

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Shuang Yu, Xiaojun Zhao. (2021). How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization. Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, 10(4), 145-159. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

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Shuang Yu; Xiaojun Zhao. How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization. Psychol. Behav. Sci. 2021, 10(4), 145-159. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

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Shuang Yu, Xiaojun Zhao. How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization. Psychol Behav Sci. 2021;10(4):145-159. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

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@article{10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14,
  author = {Shuang Yu and Xiaojun Zhao},
  title = {How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization},
  journal = {Psychology and Behavioral Sciences},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {145-159},
  doi = {10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.pbs.20211004.14},
  abstract = {The population aging has been considered as a major trend in China. By 2019, people aged 60 or older has exceeded 2.49 m, accounting for 17.9% of the population, while people aged 65 or older has reaches 1.76 m, accounting for 12.6% of the population. However, there were no clear empirical evidences that show how political polarization is affected by the older population. We use a four-round household data from 2012-2018 CFPS of China to construct a large panel data including 14,352 adults each year. This paper computes the polarization index of eight typical public events and combines them to construct an overall index, using Gini coefficient, Theil index, and Atkinson index. We find that the index is larger for the oldest than for the youngest group in overall and eight measures, indicating that political polarization has gradually bifurcated with age. To explain this phenomenon, we focus on the demographic differences in information channel, parental influence, occupation distribution and regional migration between young and old people as evidence of higher polarization. Then, a Tobit model estimated at the age-province level implies that increase in average age is associated with significant grows in polarization index and four channel effects also hold. These findings provide a new perspective to explain the reason for increasing political polarization.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization
AU  - Shuang Yu
AU  - Xiaojun Zhao
Y1  - 2021/08/31
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
T2  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JF  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JO  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
SP  - 145
EP  - 159
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7845
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
AB  - The population aging has been considered as a major trend in China. By 2019, people aged 60 or older has exceeded 2.49 m, accounting for 17.9% of the population, while people aged 65 or older has reaches 1.76 m, accounting for 12.6% of the population. However, there were no clear empirical evidences that show how political polarization is affected by the older population. We use a four-round household data from 2012-2018 CFPS of China to construct a large panel data including 14,352 adults each year. This paper computes the polarization index of eight typical public events and combines them to construct an overall index, using Gini coefficient, Theil index, and Atkinson index. We find that the index is larger for the oldest than for the youngest group in overall and eight measures, indicating that political polarization has gradually bifurcated with age. To explain this phenomenon, we focus on the demographic differences in information channel, parental influence, occupation distribution and regional migration between young and old people as evidence of higher polarization. Then, a Tobit model estimated at the age-province level implies that increase in average age is associated with significant grows in polarization index and four channel effects also hold. These findings provide a new perspective to explain the reason for increasing political polarization.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Shuang Yu

School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing, China
Xiaojun Zhao

School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing, China

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APA Style

Shuang Yu, Xiaojun Zhao. (2021). How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization. Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, 10(4), 145-159. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Shuang Yu; Xiaojun Zhao. How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization. Psychol. Behav. Sci. 2021, 10(4), 145-159. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Shuang Yu, Xiaojun Zhao. How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization. Psychol Behav Sci. 2021;10(4):145-159. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14,
  author = {Shuang Yu and Xiaojun Zhao},
  title = {How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization},
  journal = {Psychology and Behavioral Sciences},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {145-159},
  doi = {10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.pbs.20211004.14},
  abstract = {The population aging has been considered as a major trend in China. By 2019, people aged 60 or older has exceeded 2.49 m, accounting for 17.9% of the population, while people aged 65 or older has reaches 1.76 m, accounting for 12.6% of the population. However, there were no clear empirical evidences that show how political polarization is affected by the older population. We use a four-round household data from 2012-2018 CFPS of China to construct a large panel data including 14,352 adults each year. This paper computes the polarization index of eight typical public events and combines them to construct an overall index, using Gini coefficient, Theil index, and Atkinson index. We find that the index is larger for the oldest than for the youngest group in overall and eight measures, indicating that political polarization has gradually bifurcated with age. To explain this phenomenon, we focus on the demographic differences in information channel, parental influence, occupation distribution and regional migration between young and old people as evidence of higher polarization. Then, a Tobit model estimated at the age-province level implies that increase in average age is associated with significant grows in polarization index and four channel effects also hold. These findings provide a new perspective to explain the reason for increasing political polarization.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - How Does Population Aging Influence Political Polarization
AU  - Shuang Yu
AU  - Xiaojun Zhao
Y1  - 2021/08/31
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
T2  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JF  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JO  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
SP  - 145
EP  - 159
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7845
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20211004.14
AB  - The population aging has been considered as a major trend in China. By 2019, people aged 60 or older has exceeded 2.49 m, accounting for 17.9% of the population, while people aged 65 or older has reaches 1.76 m, accounting for 12.6% of the population. However, there were no clear empirical evidences that show how political polarization is affected by the older population. We use a four-round household data from 2012-2018 CFPS of China to construct a large panel data including 14,352 adults each year. This paper computes the polarization index of eight typical public events and combines them to construct an overall index, using Gini coefficient, Theil index, and Atkinson index. We find that the index is larger for the oldest than for the youngest group in overall and eight measures, indicating that political polarization has gradually bifurcated with age. To explain this phenomenon, we focus on the demographic differences in information channel, parental influence, occupation distribution and regional migration between young and old people as evidence of higher polarization. Then, a Tobit model estimated at the age-province level implies that increase in average age is associated with significant grows in polarization index and four channel effects also hold. These findings provide a new perspective to explain the reason for increasing political polarization.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download